This is the fourth post about my recent book, one that I am very excited about—Tracking the Storm. An excerpt from Chapter 4 follows below. You can download a pdf if you enjoy reading on your computer or also purchase a printed copy of the book.
Before we dig too deep, it is important to note some key ideas. To start with, the fourth turning, that last period in the saeculum, is the same 20 years (roughly) of the other turnings or periods. Yet, the full explosion of the event is never that long. There is, within each fourth turning of our history, a moment when the “Great Crisis” explodes.
It is also important to realize that we must maintain some flexibility in determining these “phases.” While history gives us a good grasp on when society made the turn from one period to the next, it is not as if one day the newspapers announced “today we start the fourth turning.” Historians will not fully agree on when to even decide when a major event started.
the last great crisis of our country, all historians agree, was the Great Depression and World War 2 experience. Erupting in the 1930s, both the economic event and the subsequent war engulfed the country, and indeed the world. If we start in 1932, the year both Adolf Hitler and Franklin Delano Roosevelt were elected to lead their respective countries, we find ourselves 79 years to 2011.
If you subtract 77 years from the election year of 1932, you find yourself at 1855, three short years before the Oberlin-Wellington Rescue that we already spoke of. This would be the time of the upheaval connected to “bleeding Kansas,” when the actual fighting of the soon-to-be civil war started in the west of the nation. The Civil War crisis racked the nation for 5 long years and then the Reconstruction that came after did not really set things right.
The coming crisis caused by the governmental decision to allow popular sovereignty in the territories of Kansas and Nebraska would have been familiar to the citizens of Boston 90 years before in 1765. The time of the Stamp Act would provoke those patriots, as well as other Americans all along the Eastern seaboard, to ALSO undertake violent acts of opposition to their government.
The attempt to oppose the British Monarch of 1765 would have been applauded by those brave men who were wrestling with the impact of the Test Act in 1675, some 90 years before the Stamp Act crisis. At the same time, the colonists in North America were starting one of the bloodiest wars in North America, Metacom’s War or King Philip’s War. Half of the English cities in New England were attacked while over 15% of the involved Native Americans would lose their lives.
“Doing the math” on the great crisis moments provides even more interesting findings. From Pearl Harbor back to Ft. Sumter is exactly 80 years (1941-1961). From Ft. Sumter back to the signing of the Declaration of Independence is 85 years. Subtract another 87 years and we arrive at the signing of the English Declaration of Rights (often called the “English Bill of Rights) associated with the Glorious Revolution. So, what about going forward? If we had 80 years from 1941 we reach 2021. Add the 85 years and we get to 2026. Again, keep in mind that many experts have noticed that time has seemed to be compacting. Perhaps we should only add 75 years—that would have us arrive at 2016.
Each of these periods has led to one clear concept—overthrow or change of government. Authors Strauss and Howe described the crisis as “when events trigger an upheaval in public life” and “struggles and sacrifices in an era of survival.” Both the Glorious Revolution and the American Revolution did precisely that—overthrew the government making lasting, historical changes to the philosophy of politics. The third saeculum led to the US Civil War, which was an attempt to leave the government and establish a new country, just as their countrymen had done 85 years before.
The Founders of Washington, Jefferson and Adams would have been horrified to see the government that Lincoln had created to save the Union. The power of the new government would be seen in greater light within 40 years during the Progressive period and then completely unmasked by the actions of FDR.
So, while technically, neither the Civil War nor World War 2 crises actually produced an overthrow of the United States’ government, the direction of the country was radically changed with the outcome. In both cases, as Strauss and Howe predict with any fourth turning, the subsequent years are experienced as a “new civic order” which is perceived by the supporters as a “High.” Of course, if you asked the Loyalists of the American Revolution period or the royalists who supported the monarchy of James II, they would not see that time as a “high,” certainly not enjoyable. As we head into the gale-force winds of our own fourth turning, we should be well aware what is at stake.
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Tracking the Storm provides powerful clues about what is coming, rapidly, to the United States. There is little doubt that a storm is approaching the country, the outer edges of the winds already swirling around us. What does that portend for the nation? Through the clues of history, we can find direction and steps to undertake to prepare. Many believe there won’t be a storm, or maybe that the worst is over. With history as a guide, I demonstrate that we haven’t yet even reached the Great Crisis.
Gripping and “a scary yet necessary read,” Tracking the Storm moves through the past 400 years of Anglo-American history to illustrate the various clues provided that show the steps to the coming crisis. I will tell the story of political instability, economic distress, rapid technological changes and a growing philosophical divide that challenged previous generations. At the end of each Great Crisis, the nation had been radically changed. Pick up your copy of Tracking the Storm today!