In the latter months of 1998, a concern began to sweep the nation, and indeed the connected world, that a crisis was immanent. The issue was the possibility that computers built in the past decades were ill-prepared to confront the mathematical problem of the year starting with “20” rather than “19.” This potential issue became known as “Y2K” or the “Y2K bug” and by the late fall 1999, companies and cities braced for the worst. Some experts suggested that planes could crash or hospital equipment would fail as well as more mundane problems like your microwave no longer working. Books were written about the need to prepare as some thought Y2K might be related to some end of the world scenario.
I will freely admit to stocking up on water and some canned goods, though that was about it. I will freely admit to stocking up on water and some canned goods, though that was about it. In the end, as we all know, nothing serious happened. A few glitches here and there, but overall nothing drastic transpired. Could the same thing happen here?
Those words are from the seventeenth installment (find earlier sections here) about my recent book, one that I am very excited about—Tracking the Storm. An excerpt from Chapter 17 follows below. You can download a pdf if you enjoy reading on your computer or also purchase a printed copy of the book.
As I have reviewed our history and have taught these patterns for years, I feel very strongly that we are on track for the next Great Crisis. All of the signs seem clear as we work our way into the second decade. However, I am astute enough to acknowledge that, like Y2K, nothing obvious could happen.
I actually believe there are more reasons than just faint hope, though, that could impact the pattern. As I noted earlier in the writing, this pattern is most clearly seen in Anglo-American history. That is true for two reasons, at least: first, prior to the 1400s, there really wasn’t an “Anglo” history separate from the rest of Europe and clearly there wasn’t an American history; second, the pattern is predicated on a system of beliefs relative to the individual, family concepts, childrearing ideas, private property values and other ideas that, while widely known today, were unique to England.
In other words, there was no obvious “pattern” of a four-cycle saeculum prior to the 1400s. Strauss and Howe do demonstrate that there are other patterns historically, and the idea of various generations do occur outside of Anglo-American history, but this clear pattern of four reoccurring generational archetypes, mixed with childrearing relationships and overlaid over a dual pattern of Great Awakening and Great Crisis, began in the post-100 Years War era.
Thus, if there is a beginning to Anglo-American history, there could also be an end of that same history. Of course, no one wants to consider such things, especially if you like living in our style of life, if you enjoy our way of living and our values, but throughout history we can see that empires and nations come and go. If the actual political entity (England, for example) does not disappear, the influence and impact of a nation can certainly come and go.
Yet, even if nothing destructive happens directly to the USA, our Western life and culture could end. Currently, there is a very strong “global” perspective that is in the forefront of many people’s minds and views. This idea of larger political entities is connected to another new passion seen across the globe, but particularly acute with some living in the USA. For the first time in our history, there is rise to an “anti-nationalist” viewpoint. This viewpoint comes up mostly with the issue of illegal immigration. Someone supporting the coming of immigrants to the country will dismiss concerns about legality, claiming that these people have rights also or that the opportunity to succeed in our country should be open to anyone. Few will openly call for the end of our nation, but their logic typically runs to a conclusion that suggest that there is little need for national boundaries or even national laws. So, if the cycle of history that we have uncovered is predicated on an Anglo-American set of values and mores, and if we no longer have such a nation, then perhaps the pattern would end.
More likely to derail the pattern as it approaches the next crisis would be the loss of the Anglo-American values from the history. Instead of losing the country in total, it is more obvious that we are seeing a shift in national values. As mentioned earlier, President Obama referred to some of our old national values—“hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism”—during his Inaugural Address in 2009. Yet, few of those ideas have grown in importance in the past three years.
Why would that matter? Remember that the idea of the cycle is related to childrearing. At its core, how a nation raises its children sets the stage for the coming 60-80 years. While Strauss and Howe demonstrated how the pendulum swings back and forth from being too restrictive to being too lax in childrearing, through the past 400 years, we have generally raised our children with the same basic core set of values. At no point, till the past few decades, would you really have found anyone suggesting that hard work was no longer necessary or important.
As we abandon our core values, the values upon which the country was founded, children being raised into that culture will not know nor hold these historic beliefs. Thus, it is possible that the same events that previously led to a Great Crisis might only lead to confusion, consternation or perhaps, merely to ambivalence.
Why are our national values is disrepair at this moment? The easiest answer is that over the past 20-30 years, we have moved philosophically into postmodernism. The simplest way to understand postmodernism is the concept that “nothing is real.” Postmodernism emerged mostly through literature studies in the post-World War 2 period, and those scholars began to postulate that the words as written by the author may not exactly mean what you, the reader, think they mean. The author could use words to confuse or contradict. At the same time, so suggest the theorists, the words are interpreted by the reader, so that no matter what the author meant, the reader creates his/her own reality. I think you can see how easy it is to jump from that view to suggest that nothing is real. Nothing has value. Everything is fluid, temporary.
Clearly, then, if nothing is real, then it is equally apparent that nothing is true. If nothing is true, postmodernists would argue, then how can anyone claim to present something like “core values?” Not only is the country postmodern, but also it is post-Christian. The polls will, of course, still show about 70-80% of the country claiming to be Christian, but to look around at our nation, our cities and our culture, is to debase that idea immediately. Moreover, in the past 20 years, citizens have become more open about supporting alternative religions such as Islam, Hinduism or even just outright atheism. While there is nothing wrong necessarily with someone holding a different faith view, doing so highlights the loss of the sense of a unified country as it confronts crisis. So, if there are no truths, if the majority of citizens live their lives as if nothing is true and the country has largely abandoned its Christian roots, that which unified our value system, then it is fair to suggest that the values that created an “Anglo-American culture” are gone. If there is no such culture anymore, then there is no reason to believe the historical cycle will happen as before.
Lastly, I think we have seen a sharp increase in the speed of our world in the past decade. This has happened through the explosion of communication tools, predominantly the computer. Perhaps the Democracy that everyone really clamors for will emerge when the government decides to issue everyone a smart phone so that they can vote on issues as required. Many are calling the Middle Eastern revolts the “Facebook Revolution” or “Twitter Revoltuion” because the successful overthrow of regimes in places like Egypt and Tunisia were aided by social media and the ability to quickly send news, videos and pictures to the world.
It is possible that all of these things: speed of global communication, postmodernism, declining national values, the end of “nationalism” or the rise of larger political entities, could make matters worse. Where those modern concepts could exacerbate the situation would be in the end result. If few citizens think we should have national boundaries or national laws, then maybe they will be unwilling to fight to preserve that nation. If few people hold to the old values, then perhaps none of them will be willing to sacrifice to preserve the nation (or sacrifice to create the new rebellion). In other words, as the possibility of a new Valley Forge emerges, or the need for a new generation to storm the beaches at Normandy, it is possible that the bulk of the citizens merely shrug and say “no thanks.”
The speed in communication could perhaps make events more toxic. Add to that the issue of our mass media and how they have largely failed to take serious the purpose of journalism. Most networks are clearly aimed at making money, so the more they can inflame a story, the better it is for them. More critically, the explosion of technology has changed many of the assumed rules. The scary reality of the technology is, just as George Orwell predicted, that technology could be used against us.
At the end of the day, I’m not sure how these very current issues will impact the story. I think they could have a great impact. Maybe they will forestall the event; perhaps they will speed its coming (remember, we could be IN the Great Crisis now as I write this in early 2011). Postmodernism poses the greatest possibility to reshaping or breaking the cycle. As we move through this decade, we will see what we see. By 2020, I think we will know.
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You can read the rest of chapter 17 in Tracking the Storm; the book provides powerful clues about what is coming, rapidly, to the United States. There is little doubt that a storm is approaching the country, the outer edges of the winds already swirling around us. What does that portend for the nation? Through the clues of history, we can find direction and steps to undertake to prepare. Many believe there won’t be a storm, or maybe that the worst is over. With history as a guide, I demonstrate that we haven’t yet even reached the Great Crisis.
Gripping and “a scary yet necessary read,” Tracking the Storm moves through the past 400 years of Anglo-American history to illustrate the various clues provided that show the steps to the coming crisis. I will tell the story of political instability, economic distress, rapid technological changes and a growing philosophical divide that challenged previous generations. At the end of each Great Crisis, the nation had been radically changed. Pick up your copy of Tracking the Storm today!