Are you paying attention to what’s coming? Back in 2010, I wrote about a pattern of history that I noticed while teaching my classes. It’s a part of a larger pattern of history that has been seen or noted for centuries; William Strauss and Neil Howe first wrote about it in their wonderful book Generations. A few years after that, in the later 1990s, they wrote The Fourth Turning, taking the research deeper. Arthur Schlesinger Jr. wrote about this generally in his book The Cycles of American History, published in 1986.
Strauss and Howe’s main thesis was that every 80 years (roughly) contains a four-fold pattern for understanding our history. The time is split into 20 years blocks, again roughly, that coincide with new generations. There is symmetry to the pattern that connects to what is going on in the world and thus impacts how the nation’s children are reared (openly, fearfully, cautiously, cavalierly, lots of freedom for the child’s actions, lots of control over the child’s actions). The pattern of four phases were titled by Strauss and Howe as The High, Spiritual Awakening, The Unraveling, Great Crisis.
The move into the last phase is what they thus consider “the fourth turning” which then ultimately culminates in an explosive, usually short (4-6 years) massive event (American Revolutionary war, for instance, 1776-1781) that then starts the pattern over again. As society emerges from Great Crisis, whatever had led to the event is settled, one “side” of the struggle loses and is silenced, and society then slides into a united viewpoint (the winning side) and is seen by those people as “the High.”
For myself, as I have spent the last 10+ years teaching, I noted that each 80 year journey to crisis contains clues to its final explosion. I wrote about it in my book, Tracking the Storm. (Get the digital ebook version here.) There, I explain about what I called “the common attributes,” the clues that we are closer. Here’s the list:
The Common Attributes
- War starting the conflict
- Weak governmental leadership
- Poor governing decisions
- Feeling of distance between government and the people
- Active opposition to government
- New political voices
- Explosive political writing
- Significant change in communication
- Economic distress
- Explosive event–controversial government reaction–galvanized opposition
- Blood in the streets
- Unforeseen trigger event propelling government actions that lead to more tension
As you consider the list, note that all but three are in bold. That’s because as of 2011, all but those three had happened. Now, #11 has also clearly happened as a growing, frustrated country explodes in anger over a variety of events. You might also note that #10 could have happened, but that one is very difficult to pinpoint in the moment. As a reminder, here’s those moments from our previous three cycles as I wrote about it in the book:
During the road to the American Revolution, the tea party (the explosive event) led to the British Parliament passing the Coercive Acts. These acts were very measured, limited, and from England’s point of view, merely aimed at troublesome Boston. To the colonists, angry along the full Eastern seaboard, the “Intolerable Acts” were evidence of a government response aimed at every American. Immediately after this came arrival of Minutemen from various states and the gathering in Philadelphia. Similarly, after the raid on Harper’s Ferry in 1858, the execution of John Brown, also considered measured by the Virginians, sparked action by both north and south. In the south, as we have already shown, the various state militias became the nucleus of the CSA army; in the north, Republicans were able to show the execution as evidence that the southerners were prepared to act against every American. Finally, in 1932, President Hoover and the Congress stumbled badly with the gathered veterans of the Bonus Army. Hoover’s decision to send in the Washington DC police, and then the US Army was very controversial. Most Americans decided once and for all that Hoover, and the Republican Party, was out of touch with the needs of the citizens, which brought on the election of FDR (and Democrat Party dominance for 50 years).
As far as I can tell, that explosive event hasn’t happened yet. It is coming, as is the last moment…the trigger event. No one will be able to pick that one out until it’s already happened. Look…when the British tried to simply protect its citizens from the chaos of seemingly terrorists gangs, they had no idea that the men in Philadelphia would use that act to galvanize revolution.
Why remind you of this? Am I trying to scare you? Not really…mostly I want you to see it coming. I want you to be prepared as it unfolds. Regardless of how the crisis unfolds for you…whether we are collectively combating an external foe, dealing with a scientific issue related to a disease or the planet, or confronting one another in some combative scenario where some part of the citizenry is on opposite sides of the crisis….you will go through it. Knowledge is power and you can prepare, at least mentally.
Make no mistake…over the past 500 years, one thing is clear once the crisis passes…what you understood about your life, both culturally and governmentally, will change. You may end up on the “winning side” and thus find the changes positive. You may be on the losing side and find yourself struggling to navigate the new world. Heck, you may find that the changes were necessary, you’re glad your side won, and yet still experience discomfort in how the change impacted your life.
Get ready. We are going to hit things soon.