March 25, 2014 at 7:39 am, by Carl

We interrupt our normal blogging that focuses on how to Live Well whether focused on personal life, academic or business issue and deep faith….in order to focus a light on the folly of leaders in the West in this evolving Crimea situation.

map_of_crimea

So, last week, in the Orlando Sentinel, I was greeted with the headline “With Crimea lost, West at loss.”  The entire premise of the article  [the link goes to the LA Times…same article] was that Western leaders were genuinely surprised that their weak, puny financial sanctions aimed at a few key Russian individuals had not persuaded Putin that he should change his actions regarding the Crimea.  Even as I am typing this, I am shocked at the naivety of these people.  Are they really this dumb?  What in the world could possibly convince them that their words of concern would change someone’s mind?

 

I mean, I could go into long detail how those same leaders, at least in the USA, certainly do not change their minds about things they deem important, whether its forcing the country into a health care issue or issues about taxation.  They do what they do because they think they are right, and when others disagree and oppose them, rather than talking about it rationally and even modifying the issue to make everyone happy, these leaders like Kerry and Obama stubbornly stick to their guns.

 

But when Putin does it, well he’s frustrating and wrong and apparently a warmonger threatening the security of the world.  Sigh.

 

I really can’t believe these people are actually in charge of our country.  To start with, there are no instances that I can think of historically where pure economic pressure actually accomplished anything.  Every time I can think of that comes close still had a military component, either on the ground or in a position to really threaten the other side.

 

This article mentions “Frustrated by the failure of Western sanctions and diplomacy to stop Russia from seizing Crimea” and later how “European and U.S. officials have been startled by Putin’s indifference to their efforts to restrain his actions in Ukraine.” I’m reading this in the Orlando Sentinel and am just amazed at how naive and, well, (how to say this nicely), uh, lacking intelligence these plans are.

 

“Hey Putin, you can’t do that…we’ll, uh, stop letting you use our banks.”
“whatever”
“uh, wait, are you going to keep doing what you are doing.”
“yes”
“but, we asked you nicely to stop doing that…and we really mean it, we’ll try to hurt you in financial terms.”
“right…now where is the lever to turn off the natural gas for most of Europe?”
“But wait, that’s not nice either”
“so”
“uh, wait, are you still going to keep doing what we are telling you to stop doing.”
“yes”
[Western leaders, Kerry, Obama…others start looking around for some adult to go cry and complain to]

 

Sheesh…its like a Monty Python episode. While we can wish and pray for calm discussion where everyone holds the same values as everyone else, thus allowing for logical discussion and fair play…that is NOT the real world. Its in Putin and Russia’s best interest to do what he is doing and until he really thinks someone is going to really threaten him and his nation, he is not going to stop no matter how much whining we do.

 

Now, all of this makes perfect sense if looked at through the lens of history.  First, for the past 300+ years, a main Russian foreign policy aim has been warm water.  The Black Sea is as close as they have come, at least in the West, and the Crimea has been in their possession with their largest naval bases since the 1800s.  When they lost that after the breakup of the USSR, it has obviously been something Russian leaders wished to reverse.

 

Second, the long, sad impact of President Woodrow Wilson raises its ugly head here yet again through the tragedy that was the Treaty of Versailles…possibly the worst geopolitical conclusions in world history, certainly a conclusion that has had the longest negative ongoing impact.  Going into World War I in 1917, Wilson made a key aim the concept of “self-determination.”  What that meant in real terms was that Wilson, and hence the USA, was committed to a concept of letting the people of any geographical region decide for themselves.

 

This was very convenient for Wilson and the other allies, France and England, when they wanted to punish Germany and Austria-Hungary.  They enjoyed stripping land from these supposed enemies.  However, the real limitation and explosive reality of this naive concept raised its head immediately in 1919 in Italy, the former Yugoslavia, the former Czechoslovakia, Turkey, and among people groups like the Kurds, the Ruthians, the Jews, the Palestinains and yes, the Ukrainains.  It didn’t take long to realize that you could not promise self-determination without ticking a bunch of other people off.

 

So, using Wilson’s own formulation, the Russian people living in the Crimea have every right to vote however they wish and then do whatever they wish.  Of course, that precisely what Adolf Hitler and the Germans said in the 1930s…and they were right every time.  The majority Germans in the Rhineland wanted to have German troops protecting them.  The majority German ancestry people living in Austria wanted to join their historic lands.  The majority Germans  living in the Sudentenland, the western mountains of old Bohemia, given to Czechoslovakia in 1919…they too wanted to come home.  And finally, yes, the majority Germans living in the western lands that had been given to Poland in 1919 also wanted to come home.

 

Thirdly, this idea of self-determination also connects to the true understanding of Liberalism where a people believe that they should get to vote, have representative government and get to basically choose their own direction and future.  Thus, did the people in Crimea voted, expressing their collective will.  We may not like their decision; we may think there might have been more Ukrainian voters who were simply afraid to vote.  However, there was a vote.

 

Fourth and finally, for the past six years (and possibly the past 20 years since Clinton was in office), the USA has lost credibility in its strength and willingness to defend itself militarily.  Look, I know that none of us like the concept of fighting.  I sure don’t.  However, I know there are people in my city who do, thus I want to have police with guns who aren’t afraid to fight and yes, use force when necessary.  The “bad guys” in my city and yours must know the police will use force, deadly force when pressed; if those bad guys do not believe that, then there is little incentive for them to back down.

 

We have so lost our way in the past years in our vain belief that people will simply just sit down and talk.  Liberals in particular are this dazed and confused, but most in the West (certainly in the US) are equally lost in some mythical utopia.  They act like everyone will simply play nice, chat things out and we’ll all walk away happy.  Yet, the hypocrisy is so high….a few weeks back in my college (in A COLLEGE of all places), we had an open discussion about some minor issue about our jobs and roles in our jobs.  Instead of calm polite back and frothing, looking for best solutions, some of my peers exploded like children, whiny, angry, accusatory, ugly children.  They blasted forth with their sharp emails and all real discussion ceased.   Instead of acting like they now somehow assume Putin should act—calm, willing to understand there are more than his views, eager to moderate, ready to give in if proven wrong—these people acted like Putin DOES act, with a “make me” vitriol.

 

Sigh…well this is too long as it is.  I probably will blog more about this blind philosophy that we hold to.  For now, just think this….I don’t war anymore than you.  But, if you assume Putin is just going to give it back….well, we aren’t going to volunteer to give the Southwest of North America back to Mexico any time soon, are we?  He has no reason to do this, regardless of any sections threatened.  Come on…its Russia…they sit across a vast expanse of the globe…we have little that they really, really need, so they aren’t really going to come crying to us with a “oh please forgive us” attitude.  The only thing that could really possibly convince Putin to give it back would be an army of significance backed by a leader with conviction.

 

That does not exist anywhere, certainly not in the West and not in the USA.  Not unless we mean a leader with conviction about forcing his country to pay really high gas prices or give up their health insurance.  On those things, Obama is actually acting just like Putin….disregarding the economic sanctions aimed at him and saying “bring it on….I will not back down.”

 

Hmmm……