October 27, 2016 at 7:25 am, by Carl

Less than two weeks remains before the election of 2016.  What the end will bring remains to be seen, but what I believe strongly is that we will live through it.  More importantly, as a Christian, I remain firmly convinced and confident that God is on His throne, and nothing happens that is ultimately not part of His plans.  His call to all to “to act justly and to love mercy and to walk humbly with your God” remains in full effect.

 

That is not to suggest that we are not moving towards a crisis.  We are.  I first wrote about it in my book Tracking the Storm, starting in 2010.  The idea of the cycle of Great Crisis is far older than that, though popularized by Strauss and Howe in the 1990s.  Over the past 500+ years of Anglo-American history, the crisis has come every 80-ish years or so.  While the pattern could change, there is no sign that it will.

 

As I wrote in October 2012, right before another Presidential election, “But, based on the previous roads to crisis, we can say that there usually is no great gap as the issues move forward.  Tension seems to rise.  The philosophical divide increases.  Both sides of the issue grow increasingly fraught with worry that their “way of life” or “viewpoint” will be marginalized or removed completely.  They become willing to “fight” for their view, either to change or defend status quo.  At that point, we simply need the final trigger, often an event that is shocking that then forces the hand of the government to respond and that response, as we noted, brings an open and outward response.”

 

Could the election of 2016 be the final trigger to the explosion?  Maybe.  As this year has gone on, it has felt very much like this election could be similar to that of 1860…a decision so frustrating to a certain citizens in the country that, to them, only extreme action makes sense.  Or, as we are seeing geopolitically, both Russia and China seem to be positioning for war.  Maybe they are simply posturing; maybe they are not.  In 1910, Theodore Roosevelt was visiting Europe.  Many then thought Germany was simply a posturing country, not really willing to pursue war for national greatness.  TR thought differently.   While there, he saw a five-hour German military exercise as the personal friend of Kaiser Wilhelm.  Later, he recounted to his wife “I’m absolutely certain now, that we’re all in for [war].  Fact and figures…aren’t half so convincing as the direct scrutiny of a thing—especially such a monstrous thing as this!”  Anyone watching China’s actions in the South China Sea (and Japan’s active responses) or Russia’s military maneuvering in their long-desired warm water off the coast of Syria should feel the same sort of feeling at TR.

 

Or, perhaps the crisis won’t be geopolitical or domestic connected to the election, but something in nature (continued concern about the plight of bees and clean water) or something with the economy (how long can the game of deepening national debt go on).  But, do not give into despair.

 

No!  Look back at history.  While the challenge of the Great Crisis is big, the vast majority of people live through it each time.  Yes, the outcome means a fundamentally changed country, at least politically.  But it doesn’t mean death or even mass destruction.  Even the madness of World War II (along with the Great Depression) which saw upwards to 40 million people dead still meant that 96%+ of the world’s population in 1940 (roughly 2.5 billion people) lived.  The USA, to be more specific, had about 130 million people in 1940 and lost almost half a million.  So 99% of our citizens lived through it.

 

Or, take the Civil War.  In 1860 there were 32 million citizens in the USA.  There were slightly over 600,000 deaths, so about 2% losses.  Meaning?  That’s right…we will live through it.  98% of those alive at the start of the Civil War lived through it.

 

So be of good faith, and instead of hand-wringing, let’s look resolutely at the challenges coming.  Sure, no one wants to have to face a storm.  When you see the tornado or blizzard coming, it is scary.  Yet, you prepare.  You take wise steps in the midst of it all.  And you stay ready for changes and upheaval.  Spend time investing in others, especially your neighbors.  Be the person in your midst with a smile and a willingness to give good grace and mercy towards others.

 

We will live through this regardless of who is elected.  Get ready…yes…but put your faith in God and face the future with confidence.